兰州市多情景土地利用变化对碳储量的影响

Carbon Storage Impacts of Land Use Change in Lanzhou under Multi-Scenario Simulations

摘要:

评估不同情景下土地利用变化对碳储量的影响，有助于识别关键的生态保护区和恢复区域，为制定科学的土地利用规划、碳减排政策和生态保护措施提供依据。基于GIS、PLUS 模型和InVEST模型，分析兰州市2000—2020 年土地利用及碳储量变化，并预测了2030 年在3 种不同情景下碳储量的演变趋势。结果表明，2000—2020 年，兰州市耕地和草地面积减少，建设用地大幅扩张，碳储量整体呈下降趋势；2030 年在城镇发展情景下建设用地显著扩张，碳储量大幅下降；自然发展情景下碳储量降幅较小；生态保护情景下林地碳储量有所回升。其中植被覆盖度与碳储量正相关，人口密度与碳储量负相关。最后提出落实生态保护政策，合理控制城市扩张，优化交通基础设施布局等策略。

Abstract:

Assessing the impact of land use changes on carbon storage under different development scenarios is crucial for identifying priority areas for ecological protection and restoration, and for informing land use planning and carbon mitigation strategies. This study integrated GIS, the PLUS model, and the InVEST model to analyze land use and carbon storage dynamics in Lanzhou from 2000 to 2020. It projected future changes under three scenarios: urban development, natural development, and ecological protection. Results indicate that from 2000 to 2020, arable and grassland areas declined while construction land expanded significantly, leading to a marked reduction in overall carbon storage. By 2030, carbon storage is expected to decline sharply under the urban development scenario, decrease moderately under natural development scenario, and partially recover under ecological protection scenario, particularly in forest areas. Positive correlations were found between carbon storage and vegetation coverage, while negative correlations were observed with population density. Policy recommendations include implementing robust ecological protection, limiting urban sprawl, and optimizing transportation infrastructure to enhance regional carbon sequestration and sustainability.