基于 DIVA-GIS 的广东适生樱花预测分析

Prediction and Analysis of Suitable Cerasus spp. in Guangdong Province based on DIVA - GIS

摘要:

目前广东省内栽培的樱花种类品种较为单一，为筛选出适生于广东省的樱花种类，将基于19个气候因子和233个地理分布记录，利用DIVA-GIS软件结合BIOCLIM生态位模型，对大叶早樱Cerasus subhirtella、高盆樱桃C.cerasoides、山樱花C.serrulata、尾叶樱桃C. dielsiana、迎春樱桃C. discoidea 和钟花樱桃C.campanulata共6种原产于我国的野生樱花在当前和未来气候下的适生区进行预测，结果显示：在粤北地区引种除高盆樱桃外的5种樱花种类会有较好表现，也可尝试在广东其他地区引种大叶早樱、山樱花、钟花樱桃等种类，且主成分分析表明年均温是6个种共同的主导气候限制因子。

Abstract:

Currently,the varieties of Cerasus spp.cultivated in Guangdong are relatively single. In order to screen the suitable species in Guangdong,this article based on 19 climate factors and 233 distribution records,using the DIVA-GIS software combining BIOCLIM niche model,predicts the suitable areas of 6 kinds of Cerasus spp.of C.subhirtella,C. cerasoides,C.serrulata,C. dielsiana, C. discoidea and C. campanulata originated in China under the current and future climate. The results show that 5 species except C. cerasoides introduced in northern Guangdong will have better performance, C. subhirtella, C. serrulata and C. campanulata can also be introduced in other areas of Guangdong, and principal component analysis shows that average annual temperature is the dominant climate limiting factor shared by the 6 species.